Uncertainty.

Why we don't like it, and why we'll never win against it.

Happy Friday.

One of the ideas I’ve spent a great deal of time reflecting on in recent years is the distinction between the mind and the deeper sense of awareness that is seemingly distinct from it. We tend to assume that the voice in our heads, the constant stream of thoughts analysing, predicting, and narrating our lives, is who we are at a fundamental level. René Descartes famously said ‘I think, therefore I am’. There is much debate as to whether the most common interpretations of this were in fact the intended meaning. When you look a little more closely at the mind and its manifestations, it becomes clear that the mind is not quite the same thing as the self that is able to experience it. If you are able to say ‘I’m thinking a lot today’, then who is I?

The mind is better understood as an emergent property of consciousness rather than the entirety of it. Beneath (and indeed, between) the constant movement of thought is a much more subtle sense of awareness, a simple experience of being present in the moment. It’s the state many people recognise when they are fully absorbed in something. Listening to music or watching a film. Being immersed in a conversation or sitting quietly in meditation. Watching the sunrise over the ocean. In those moments, the mind stops and the intensity of the present moment takes over. Misinterpreting Descartes, therefore, would suggest that you are dead. Troubles appear to recede, not because the external world has changed, but because attention is no longer dominated by the constant predictive activity of the mind or its need to change the external environment to satisfy it.

The reason this distinction matters becomes particularly clear when we look at how the mind actually functions. At its core, the mind is a prediction engine. Its job is to interpret the world through its rich tapestry of stimuli (both good and bad), anticipate potential threats or opportunities, and project forward into possible futures. From an evolutionary perspective, this has been enormously useful. The ability to anticipate danger or prepare for uncertainty has helped human beings survive in a complex and often unpredictable environment.

The same evolutionary mechanism that once helped us navigate physical threats can also generate discomfort when the future becomes especially uncertain. For the most part, the risk of being eaten by a lion has largely disappeared and the threats are more towards our internal sense of security or wellbeing.

And we are certainly living through a period that feels uncertain. News headlines are filled with geopolitical tensions, conflicts in the Middle East, economic concerns, discussions about artificial intelligence, labour markets, and the changing structure of global economies. When the external environment appears unstable, it is only natural that the mind attempts to parse through it in order to predict what might happen next. It begins scanning for signals, constructing scenarios, and trying to resolve uncertainty through analysis. It is just doing its job.

The difficulty, however, is that uncertainty is not something the mind can ever fully eliminate. The universe itself is inherently uncertain. It is dynamic, evolving, and unpredictable. We are products of that same universe, which means uncertainty is woven into the very fabric of the world we inhabit and indeed the ways our lives unfold. When the mind attempts to fight that reality by thinking harder, analysing more deeply, or predicting more precisely, it often ends up generating the very anxiety it is trying to resolve.

This is why anxiety rarely disappears simply by thinking more about the problem. It’s like asking for more salt when you’re thirsty. This is where returning to the present moment and approaching the mind from a more controlled space becomes very useful.

We can reconnect with that deeper layer of consciousness that experiences life as it unfolds rather than trying to control every possible outcome in advance. The present moment does not eliminate uncertainty, but it allows us to experience it without being overwhelmed by the mind’s attempts to resolve it.

In many ways, this may be closer to the true nature of our experience. Life has always contained uncertainty. Markets fluctuate, societies change, technologies evolve, and global events unfold in ways no model can perfectly predict. Trying to fight that inherent uncertainty through relentless mental forecasting can become exhausting.

Accepting uncertainty does not mean disengaging from the world or ignoring important developments. It simply means recognising the limits of what the mind can control. When we stop expecting certainty from an uncertain universe, we can access the mind for more considered and calm thinking. The mind can still do its job when necessary, but it no longer dominates every moment of our experience.

Perhaps the most helpful reminder in uncertain times is this: you are not your thoughts. You are the awareness that notices them. And that awareness exists most clearly in the present moment, not in the imagined futures the mind is constantly trying to construct. From this place we can use our clearer thoughts to either address a necessary decision or simply let it be. At least we’ll have more confidence that it was approached in the right way.

Life will always contain uncertainty. In many ways, that is simply the nature of being alive.

Have a wonderful weekend.

Adam